Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Athens Must Deliver on Reforms Under latest Bailout Deal

Following an E.U. bailout offer slated to start in two years, Greece’s 10-year bond yields dropped below 8 percent, a decrease not seen in over 6 months.

The offer to Athens is dependent on the government following through with certain financial reforms connected to the agreement.

The small print of the deal, which was opposed by Germany which believes a bailout is a mistake, will be hammered out by euro zone economic authorities before the end of the month. In contrast to the German view, the IMF was convinced that a further loan agreement is the only option.

Debt relief will begin to flow once further deals are reached concerning the country’s fiscal reforms. The reform deal is expected to be confirmed in the next few days according to comments by the Eurogroup following its meeting last Monday.

“The International Monetary Fund has been fairly insistent on a course of action that sees further loans being made to prop up the Greek economy. It seems as if Germany are now coming around to the idea, if not wholeheartedly, and that is restoring some investor confidence” said Robert Barkley, - Executive Vice President of Portfolio Management at Orix Trading.

The financially beleaguered country saw its 10-year yields slump badly last week leading to a knock on effect dragging other European stocks down with them. Similarly the Greek 2-year yields declined 140 points to under 8 percent.

Germany’s fears may be well founded as a report by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), as published by Reuters last week, outlined grave dangers regarding further Greek loans and the general sustainability of the planned deal.

In one of the possible scenarios outlined by the report, the E.U. would need to put a significant extension on the maturities of the loans and put an upper limit on interest payments. Deputy finance ministers are taking the ESM’s findings seriously and will prepare various bailout plans which will be discussed by the European finance chiefs in the last week of May.

Greece will have considerable loan repayments due in the next few months and some experts are pessimistic that an agreement between Athens and the euro zone financial ministers will be reached soon.

"There is a danger that talks could drag out well into the summer due to differing philosophies on the Greek issue," said DZ Bank investment officer Hendrik Lodde. "Most of the negativity seems to be coming from creditors concerned that the proposed plan may not be the best way to proceed."

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Office supplier deal breaks down following federal intervention

A proposed deal to unite two of the country’s biggest office suppliers collapsed last week after a judge agreed with federal antitrust authorities that the merger would result in an unfair monopoly.
After the ruling shares in the two companies, Office Depot and Staples, plummeted 25 percent and 11 percent respectively.

Judge Emmet Sullivan of U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia thwarted the $6.4 billion deal on Tuesday, a triumph for the FTC (Federal Trade Commission), who said that merging the two office titans, who mainly supply paper and pens, would hurt corporate customers.

The FTC called the judge's decision "a great victory” and noted that "this deal would kill direct competition between the two companies and likely lead to increased prices and decreased quality service for large corporations that purchase office supplies," said Debbie Feinstein, chief of the FTC's Bureau of Competition in a press release.

Deal Eliminated
The merger was effectively killed after the federal judge ruled on the injunction as the FTC proceeds to challenge the deal in its administrative court. Roland Smith, the CEO of Office Depot, said it was unlikely the two companies would appeal the injunction and they would terminate the provisional agreement they have with Staples, effective immediately.

This is the second time a proposed merger by the two office giants has been blocked by the FTC. In 1997 another deal was on the table only to be eliminated by a lawsuit by the commission, suing the companies claiming the deal would wipe out the ability of large clients to bargain for prices. This is another landmark victory for the FTC who has been bombarded with proposed mergers this year intended to combine some of the nation’s largest companies across different sectors.
Tension Filled Case

It wasn’t all plain sailing for the commission as the judge often criticized the FTC for their sloppy handling of proceedings and was forced to frequently jump in to comfort witnesses after over eager cross examination. Some investors believed Judge Sullivan’s actions during the case may have been a sign that a favourable outcome was on the cards concerning the deal.

“You really don’t want to second guess a judge’s decision based on their actions during a hearing,” said Robert Barkley, Executive Vice President of Portfolio Management at Orix Trading. “Having said that, I am relatively surprised that the result went the way it did having observed Sullivan’s attitude toward the FTC in the course of the trial,” he added.

Friday, May 13, 2016

Alibaba Digital Sales Up 39% on Increased Public Spending in China

The Alibaba Group, owners of China's greatest online commercial centers, is getting more cash out of abating development.

The Chinese e-commerce goliath, who lists shares on the NY Stock Exchange, published a press release on Thursday showing a surge in profit and income in the initial three months of the year contrasted with the same period a year prior. The organization profited charging retailers to use its services, which connect merchants of all sizes with China's growing number of online savy shoppers.

However, the figures also demonstrated a decrease in the volume of sales over its platform. Gross stock volume, or how much merchandise remained unsold, grew 24 percent year on year, about the same pace as in the previous quarter.

Despite this Alibaba's shares traded higher in early sessions. In a blog entry included with the profit report, Alibaba's official VP, Joseph C. Tsai, said the organization could avoid the pattern of more extensive worldwide financial troubles as a result of the versatility of Chinese shoppers, which market analysts say must compensate for China's manufacturing and construction areas.

"Chinese buyers, with their solid financial resources and capacity to spend, will propel China's move from an export and government investment driven economy to a consumption focused economy," Mr. Tsai said.

For US investors, Alibaba has become a gauge of the Chinese economy. In spite of the fact that a sizable segment of China's retail deals happen on Alibaba's commercial sites — Chinese purchasers spent around $500 billion on Alibaba a year ago — the organization's business development outperformed the increase in purchases on its site.

Poor performance form non-core businesses
Alibaba stated that its Koubei business, which permits Chinese buyers to place orders for food and other services on their cell phones, had produced $135 million in losses for its umbrella organization during the quarter.

In his blog entry, Mr. Tsai spoke of the perseverence required in developing the organization's Taobao online commercial portal, now the major sales force of the organization. He said the organization would take a comparative long haul view and continue to spend on new companies that it believes can help its development.

"Moving forward we are prepared to contribute resources to high-potential organizations that are key to Alibaba, from digital entertainment to neighborhood services to worldwide development," he said.

When Alibaba was listed in late 2014, the organization raised more than $20 billion, the biggest open listing in US history. From that point on, a poorly performing Chinese economy and a lull in spending growth on Alibaba's platforms meant that regardless of strong results, the organization's share price has not returned to the level it reached in the early days of trading.

Robert Barkley, Executive Vice President of Portfolio Management at Orix Trading commented, “Alibaba are still doing well. Even with the dips in its satellite activities the core business is still making great strides in the online marketplace and is far and away the leader in its field.”

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Japan's Prime Minister To Release 10.3 Trillion Yen Stimulus

The current Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, has revealed that the government has decided to push 10.3 trillion Yen into the Japanese economy. This is the first major policy step the current government has taken to promote growth and push the Japanese economy out of recession.

In a statement released by the Cabinet Office, it was announced that of the total sum approximately 3.8 trillion Yen will be allotted to reconstruction and disaster prevention sectors and another 3.1 trillion Yen will be put into promoting private investment. The government is of the opinion that the money pushed into the economy will provide returns by accentuating the gross domestic product by about 2 percent. The government also stated that the fiscal stimulus would create close to 600,000 new jobs in Japan.

An increase in China’s inflation was seen today while most other Asian economies rebound. It is believed that these factors will help Japan to emerge from its third recession. However, certain concerns were raised from various quarters of the financial world. Some pundits believe that increasing public debt to twice the size of economy might cause an undesirable increase in bond yields.

More recently, Japan's short-term bonds witnessed an upsurge while the country's long-term debts dwindled. This has caused the yield spread between the 30-year and 5-year securities to reach an all-time high since March 2010. The benchmark 10-year note also saw an increase. This has caused the yield to decline by one basis point. The yield is currently at 0.81 percent which is the lowest it has been since December 28.

While speaking to a group of journalists in Tokyo, the Prime Minister said that his government is wholly committed to economic revamping and this is supported by the proposed fiscal stimulus.
The Central Bank of Japan has offered solid support to Abe. Following the advice of the Prime Minister, Japan's central bank has decided to increase its inflation target to 2% from the current 1%. The bank has not yet put a timeline for achieving this target.

Robert Barkley, Executive Vice President of Portfolio Management at Orix Trading says, "The fiscal stimulus which the Japanese government is planning to release into the economy has the potential to change Japanese economy for good. People are already putting their bets on Japan. Since the government is already doing whatever it can to pull Japan out of recession, this fiscal stimulus will put the onus on the Central Bank of Japan. The BoJ may finally have to relent and begin easing."
According to the data released today. Japan witnessed a significant current account deficit in November. This data is enough to prove that a colossal task lies ahead for the Japanese Prime Minister and the current government.

To raise the proposed 13.1 trillion, Japan will have to sell close to 5 trillion Yen in Bonds. The government will have to raise additional budget in the current financial year to raise the entire amount. Additional bond insurance will come up to approximately 8 trillion Yen for the current financial year. This sum includes the previously announced 2.6 trillion Yen in bridge bonds, which were required to cover pension payments.

The Japanese government also said that the fiscal stimulus will take some time to show its positive effect and that the economists will be able to see its real impact in the next financial year that starts in April. However, the government refrained from giving any details on employment and job creation.

Economists are of the opinion that the fiscal stimulus proposed by Abe will cause the real annualized GDP to achieve a growth of 3.5% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year. The Brokerage has already increased its GDP prediction to 1.8 percent from a previous 1 percent in the current financial year. This enhanced forecast came as a result of the proposed stimulus as well as improving prospects of net exports. A decline in Yen has also been pivotal in causing this rise.

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Oil Price Jump Brings Good News for Australia

The Australian share market opened with a bang. This upsurge in the share market can be attributed to the fact that the price of crude oil climbed in the offshore session. When the official market opened at 10:15 am, the share market's benchmark S&P/ASX index climbed by 0.62 percent or 32.1 points and reached 5,219.8. At the same time, the all ordinaries index climbed by 0.61 percent or 32 points and reached 5,282.9.

However, the share markets were affected most by an increase in the price of Brent crude. In a single night, the price of Brent crude climbed by 2 percent and reached $47 per barrel.

Robert Barkley, Executive Vice President of Portfolio Management, at Orix Trading says, "A weaker dollar and an increase in oil prices have led to an upbeat commodity sentiment in general."

He added, "The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to have a meeting next week. The investors are hoping that during the meeting, the bank will induce an interest-rate cut. Similarly, since the Australian dollar has turned negative, the investors are also hoping that the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide to sell bank shares."

As the support for energy and mining stocks is climbing, the pressure on financial stocks is also increasing. This can lead to the emergence of a highly diverse market.
Before yesterday's heavy falls, all the big banks traded higher. The ANZ banking group was farthest ahead in the race -- it registered a 0.8 percent hike and reached $24.07. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia hiked by 0.19 percent and reached $73.90. The National Bank of Australia, on the other hand, hiked by 0.65 percent and reached $27.08 while Westpac hiked by 0.13 percent and reached $30.98.

The increase in oil prices also affected some major energy giants positively. The share prices of Santos jumped by 2 percent and reached $4.63. Likewise, Woodside also registered a hike of 2 percent and reached $28.26 and Origin bounding jumped by 2.3 percent and reached $5.42.
The oil prices also affected the mining sector positively. The prices of BHP hiked by 3.3 percent and reached $20.29. At the same time, the prices of Rio Tinto jumped by 2.2 percent and reached $49.49. Fortescue, which is the fourth largest producer of iron ore in the world, registered a tremendous rise of 3.9 percent. This was surprising as iron prices have registered a decline for four consecutive sessions.

Some companies did however register a downfall. For instance, Telstra rolled down by 0.37 percent and fell to $5.36. Likewise, Qantas rolled down by 2.7 percent and settled on $3.25.

Pacific Brands, the popular Australian products company, accepted an offer of $1.1 billion and will be taken over by US-based Hanesbrands. According to the deal, the price of every share of Pacific Brands is $1.15. This is 22 percent higher than the last stock price.

Currently, the Australian dollar measures 76 against the US dollar. As the chance of a weak inflation thickens, the investors are hoping that the bank will cut rates this year.

Monday, May 9, 2016

Goldman Targets Affluent Borrowers with Lending Solution

Goldman Sachs, sees a future in less prosperous financial investors.
An inventive technique coming to fruition inside the bank calls for it to band together with smaller financiers and wealth administration firms to loan funds to their customers, a significant number of whom have far less money than what's in the run of the mill Goldman private ledger.
The bank is hoping to make earnings from a more extensive borrower base as benefits from conventional methods like bond exchanges have backed off. In April, Goldman finished an arrangement to purchase $17 billion worth of online assets from GE Capital Bank to push its growth on Main Street.

"Developing the loaning business to a more extensive customer base counterbalances a portion of the pain that has been occurring on the trading level" said Robert Barkley, Executive Vice President of Portfolio Management at Orix Trading.

Loaning to richer people and corporate types amounted to less than half of the accounting reported inside Goldman's lending & investment sector toward the end of 2010, however that rate today has risen to now being more than 75%.

This innovative strategy will target customers who are lower on the financial tiers. Sources would not detail a wealth index for borrowers Goldman will reach through outsiders, however they said they are liable to be characterized as those with under $1 million in investable resources.
Goldman’s declined to give further details on how it will partner up with financiers and function regarding charges, guaranteeing or security.

CHASE FOR PROFITS
Goldman’s has tripled loans to its own private wealth (admins DELETE) and corporate customers in the course of the last 3 years, as per administrative filings. It had $45 billion in loans toward the end of 2015.

That loan portfolio accounted for around half of the deposits it had toward the end of 2015. Comparatively, Morgan Stanley loans out around 55% of its deposits and has said freely it was focusing to develop that rate to 70%.

There is risk in being excessively forceful in growing an advance loan book when there is extreme rivalry for good borrowers. Goldman's system may convey extra hazard; since borrowers are not in-house, the bank may need to depend on different firms to vet records of loan repayment and survey resource values.

It is unclear how Goldman plans to deal with those potential risks.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

EU Referendum: 110 Bosses Support EU Exit

More than 100 influential business bosses came together to support the campaign for the UK to quit EU. The group is of the opinion that the City of London will flourish and boom if its leaves the EU.
According to these 110 business bosses, excessive regulations being imposed by the EU will harm London's supremacy in the global financial services sector. However, according to another school of thought, leaving the EU will cause job losses as well as a decline in investment.

In the referendum campaign that was held previously, institutions like the CBI and EEF supported the idea of the UK staying in the EU. Likewise, people who are supporting the idea of UK staying in the EU had also brought the support of 36 FTSE 100 bosses to support their claim.

Economists, traders and politicians have been discussing and weighing the impact of the UK quitting the EU's single market. This move will affect trade deals and thus, the economy of UK.

However, the current government is of the opinion that quitting the EU is not a good move for the UK as leaving the Eurozone will hamper economic growth and reduce the household income of people.

Contrary to this, leave campaigners are stating that all such claims of the government are untrue and that the government is only trying to scare people. In their letter to the Evening Standard, the 110 business figures have said that, leaving the EU will not reduce growth. Instead, it will cement London's status as the world's largest international financial centre.

Chained to the Euro
Drawing from their personal experiences, the signatories, which includes an impressive list of Chief Executives, Economists and Fund Managers, said that they are devoted to establishing and maintaining London's status as an ideal and competitive place to do business. The signatories warned that the EU's intentions are contrary to that of the UK and thus, staying in the EU will harm UK badly in the long run.

Robert Barkley of Orix Trading says, "The EU cannot move beyond the Euro which is already harming the economic and social interests of the EU members. It has also caused high unemployment in EU member countries."

He further added, "More importantly Europe needs to embark on a journey of innovation if it wants to compete with the rest of the world. At the moment, it is unknown if the EU is willing to contribute or support this new world of innovations. On top of this, excessive regulations being imposed by EU are capable of harming UK's financial services industry as well as the future of London.”

The signatories have made a strong plea to quit the EU. In their letter to the Evening Standard, they have also said that if London is supported by an efficient political leadership and a good regulatory environment, nothing can stop the City from remaining one of the world's leading international financial centres.